Despite its extremely militaristic rhetoric, Russia too wanted to avoid a large-scale offensive and most importantly, a potential military confrontation with Turkey. From Moscow’s perspective, getting back into the power politics of the Middle East was a sensible, even necessary, move in 2015. The Israeli government’s greatest fear is a dramatic regional escalation, and the possibility that Syria will become a theatre of open conflict between Russia and states like the US, UK and France. Airstrikes from a foreign base, cruise missiles, different types of space and electronic reconnaissance, no land force units involved, drones, close coordination between navy and air force, cooperation with foreign military: these are all signs of an operation typical to modern warfare. 40,000 fleeing Aleppo as battle for Syrian city intensifies: U.N. strategic center of Russia's military operation, Russia is still a force to be reckoned with, bloodiest Europe has seen since the wars over the former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. We also see that the Russian Ministry of Defense opened an information center to provide official information, including videos of strikes, in a timely manner. In this regard, Russia’s decision to stand with its ally is especially important. Russian airstrikes support the Syrian regime to advance on rebel-held Aleppo - which would have been impossible a year ago. The opposition wants Assad, who has ruled Syria for 17 years, to relinquish power. In 2000, Vladimir Putin became president of Russia and Bashar al-Assad became president of Syria. Russia saw in Syria an opportunity to act decisively, and took it. What does Russia really want? In 1980, Leonid Brezhnev, the former leader of the U.S.S.R., signed a "treaty of friendship" with Hafez, Assad's father. What does Russia seek in Syria? It seeks what all other nations seek and are entitled to, self-preservation. View from Latakia: Inside Russia's Syrian war. It seeks what all other nations seek and are entitled to, self-preservation. What does Russia seek in Syria? The first thing to note here is a more consistent effort by Russia to make the operation in Syria transparent. Russian leaders seem to fear … Some hawks charge that Putin’s decision looks like a campaign to make Russia a major military power in the entire Middle East. Thirdly, Russia wants to return as a full-fledged player in the Mediterranean basin through Syria. Syria’s Cold War patron, Russia wants to maintain influence over Damascus once the war winds down, to keep a strategic foothold in the Mideast and a stable client for Russian weapons and commodities — and to warn the U.S. and its allies against future interference. What does Russia seek in Syria? The opposition wants Assad, who has ruled Syria for 17 years, to relinquish power. Considering the chilled relations between the Kremlin and the White House, the September meeting in New York between Putin and Obama seemed more an attempt by the Russian president to explain his country’s position personally than an effort to get American support. Russia’s ambassador in Geneva, Alexei Borodavkin, has called such demands absurd. Russia fears an ISIS victory in Syria would have reverberations at home, as some of the top military commanders of ISIS are Russian speakers of Chechen origin. The norm used to be a Middle East with Russia in it as a major power broker. Chaos in the Middle East impact Russia long before in affects the United States. Russia's president stood before the general assembly sounding ready to lead peace efforts in Syria. Russian leaders support a peace deal with broad consensus among Syria's moderate factions that would allow Assad to remain in power. What does Russia really want? And that’s for rule over just a part of Syria. At this point, it is too early to say if Russia did its “homework”. Here are five key reasons Russia won’t be leaving Syria any time soon. Russia has supported the incumbent Bashar al-Assad government of Syria since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011: politically, with military aid, and since September 2015, dubbed as Mission in Syria (Russian: Миссия в Сирии Missiya v Sirii) through direct military involvement. The latter marked the first time since the end of the Cold War that Russia entered an armed conflict outside the borders of the former Soviet Union. Islamist rebels from the southern Russian republic of Chechnya have been fighting for independence since the 1990s, although a brutal six-year campaign by Moscow silenced much opposition and the autonomous region is now firmly under the control of Russian-appointed leader Ramzan Kadyrov. One cannot be wrong to suggest that some of these talks are difficult, but their continuation significantly strengthens Russia’s strategic stance in the region. The terrain, culture and politics of modern Syria and of Afghanistan almost 40 years ago are very different. Second, military involvement in Syria is a very serious test for Russia’s ties in the region. Middle Eastern affairs are in a state of constant flux, and grow even more so every year. Since Russia came to President Bashar al-Assad's aid at his request, the Syrian battlefield has transformed rapidly. Russia has reasons to resist military intervention in Syria. Russia has just as legitimate interests as the US when it comes to a desire for stability in Syria. STEVE INSKEEP, HOST: Remember, Putin is the aggressive leader recently isolated by the West. It seeks what all other nations seek and are entitled to, self-preservation. It is hard not to notice that despite various amounts of criticism and concerns from regional capitals regarding Russia’s operation, Moscow is talking to almost all of them. That has not been the case with Syria, where Russia is conducting a type of campaign lately seen executed only by the United States or under American leadership. And by demonstrating this kind of boldness Moscow, whatever its goals, forces other players in the Middle East to react—whether or not they are ready. The next crucial issue to follow, while analyzing the Syrian intervention’s significance for Russia’s foreign policy, is Moscow’s capability to account for past negative experience, whether its own or that of others. But what exactly is Russian President Vladimir Putin up to in Syria? WHAT DOES RUSSIA WANT? Reporters, politicians, experts and pundits have argued whether Russia is trying to rescue Assad or whether it is fighting ISIS and other terror groups in the area. It included the lessons of its and other countries’ foreign military campaigns that went wrong. At the same time, the Russian government has presented the operation in Syria as an opportunity to test and promote Russian weaponry (something other large arms exporters, like … Russia’s ambassador in Geneva, Alexei Borodavkin, has called such demands absurd. One can argue the effectiveness of this PR effort, yet it is a big step forward compared to Russia’s actions during the 2008 Georgia campaign, when Moscow sluggishly reacted to Georgia’s moves to win over international sympathies. Moscow (CNN)It was the largest city in Syria before the war, and for years has been a main rebel stronghold. Middle East What does Russia want from its campaign in Syria? Here are five key reasons Russia won't be leaving Syria any time soon. The opposition, though very dependent on Turkish protection, holds much of the north-west, and it also – for now – controls territor… Scott Lucas, University of Birmingham Among those glancing at Syria’s seven-year conflict, a simple but misleading declaration is circulating: “Assad is winning”. Russia is not building an empire, it seeks to stop one that threatens its existence from reaching its borders with proxies that include Neo-Nazis, terrorists, and NATO forces themselves. These debates are often politically significant, but tend to be quite divisive and do not contribute much to understanding the background, broader context or consequences of the Russian operation. But Russia had even more homework to do before the Syrian operation. This situation gives regional leaders something to think about. Many observers are now making parallels between Syria and the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan. Russia is already one of the world's biggest arms producers. American pundits and politicians, especially Republicans, during the last month have often mentioned that the Russian military campaign represents Moscow’s return to the Middle East. What Russian leaders seem to want in Syria is a war without EU sanctions, which they can win for the viewers at home. Battle hardened jihadists pose a greater danger to the nearby Russia than the United States. Now, a defining battle is looming for Aleppo. Yes, Russia does sell lot of arms -- $15 billion worth in 2012. It is also important to consider that Russia used these missiles, almost routinely, not during an existential battle or a fight for vital national interests, but in a faraway campaign of choice. If the Caspian Fleet, considered by some as a “backwater navy,” is capable of using cruise missiles to strike targets thousands of miles away, what else Russia could have in store—especially when it is ready to use its military capabilities? Not that Russia has used military threats as foreign policy instrument, but from time to time, one could hear critics asking: why exactly Russia should be regarded as a main power? Regime forces and their allies on the ground, supported by Russian bombers in the air, are tightening the noose around the eastern half of the city, still held by a coalition of rebel groups. Experts can spend years studying doctrines of foreign policy and speeches of decision makers, yet remain unable to decipher how the country in question would act in various circumstances. The jury is still out on what Moscow is trying to achieve and how its decision to intervene in Syria will be executed, but the strategic courage of Russian foreign policy is beyond doubt. The ministry of defense, the foreign ministry and the Kremlin are communicating with their counterparts and the international media, more than anybody familiar with Russian officials could expect. But as we have shown above, some important facts of Russia’s behavior in the international arena are already obvious during its military campaign in Syria. Russia’s airstrikes against Syrian rebels last week came as a surprise to many Americans — including, it seems, many in the Obama administration. A Syrian child cries as residents flee the northern embattled city of Aleppo on February 5. Russia’s actions were not simply opportunistic and dictated by short-term tactical thinking. Moscow’s courage includes its military capabilities and its readiness to use them. The goal in Syria was not to grab what was left but to flex its muscle and showcase power. Russia's friendly relationship with Syria dates back to the Cold War. Russia’s airstrikes against Syrian rebels last week came as a surprise to many Americans — including, it seems, many in the Obama administration. In this regard, Russia’s actions towards Syrian crisis speak volumes, providing significant amount of food for thought for those trying to understand Russian foreign policy. They shouldn’t have. With the United States voluntarily giving up much of its leverage in Syria, Russia has probably the most to gain. They shouldn’t have. The Arab world was one of few arenas where Soviet successfully built long-term partnerships during the Cold War, and the Russian brand remains surprisingly popular in the region. Syria under Assad is seen by the Kremlin as a key pillar of its strategic influence in the Middle East and Moscow is extremely reluctant to let it go. According to the Moscow Times these were already worth around 20 billion USD in 2011, and it is a number certain to rise in the future. The decision to intervene in Syria allows us to make several conclusions about Russian foreign policy beyond the Middle East. Russia has had a naval facility in Tartus since Soviet times, and although it is has been more of a repair yard and warship supply station, The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, which deposed long-time dictator Saddam Hussein, and the 2011 toppling of Moammar Gadhafi's Libyan regime -- helped by an, More recently, Western support for the overthrow of Ukraine's pro-Russia leader Viktor Yanukovych prompted Russia to annex the Crimean peninsula and provide support for pro-Russia rebels in battles in Eastern Ukraine, fighting that mushroomed into the. The economic cooperation between Syria and Russia stretches back decades and several Russian corporations have contracts in Syria from before the conflict. After months of heightened tensions in the Syrian province of Idlib, the last stronghold of the Syrian opposition, Russia and Turkey seem to have reached a temporary solution. In general, the Russian military is operating, in many senses, on unfamiliar terrain. What else does Russia want in Syria? It is now entirely dependent on them. Sales to nations like China and India -- which are carefully watching the Russian impact on the Syrian war -- could now see a significant upswing. Many observers have argued that the Russian military operation in Syria is a bold challenge to the United States in the region. Head of the Baltics section of the Moscow Institute, CIS, funded by the Russian ministry of foreign affairs, Aleksandrov suggested that in the event of a U.S. attack on Syria, Russia should invade the Baltic states, claiming that "half of the population of Latvia and Estonia will meet the Russian troops with flowers as it was in 1940." Even the 2008 operation in Georgia was close to its borders and fought against a well-known enemy. International analysis of Russia’s military action in Syria has been mostly focused on the main goals of the campaign. Further, we must look at the current state of Russia’s relationships in the Middle East. The usual explanations are that Syria buys lots of Russian arms and that the Syrian port of Tartus is an important "base" for Russia's Mediterranean Fleet. What else does Russia want in Syria? But no military or technology is perfect, and so far nobody can prove how many missiles failed. Whether one thinks that Russia is rescuing Assad, which tends to be the Western perception, or fighting ISIS, several things are very difficult to argue with. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his aides have been bolstering their support of Syria’s president, Bashar Assad, for months — visibly, with troops and aircraft, and volubly as well. Both theories are simplistic. Today the United States is struggling to understand who are “mainstream rebels” and who is in the “democratic opposition” in Syria, not to mention whether to provide the “good guys” with the most sophisticated weapons. Following a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on September 17 in Sochi, the two countries agreed to create a demilitarised zone 15-20km into … Syria's complex and devastating civil war has drawn in multiple foreign powers since it broke out in 2011. View news feed from Ukrainian Independent Information Agency UNIAN - world news for 07 October. 1. But separatist groups do continue to inflict violence on Russia, like the. Throughout the Syrian civil war, Russia … By demonstrating boldness, Moscow is forcing the rest of the Middle East to act decisively. Iraqi officials also demonstrated a strong interest to cooperate with Russia in fighting with ISIS. Aleppo is the regime's most prized target and such regime gains would have been unimaginable for before. Here we can again compare the Russian and American positions: for example, it is rather hard for Washington to deal with many issues in the region without talking to Tehran—yet the latter is difficult in terms of domestic U.S. politics. Russia is not returning to the Middle East: Syria was a Soviet ally during the Cold War and so it was very logical for Bashar al-Assad to ask for Russia’s help. Of course, there are enough critics speculating that not all Russian cruise missiles reached their targets. Updated 1649 GMT (0049 HKT) February 8, 2016. Kremlin concerns about the spread of Islamist violence are genuine. It seems that there could be a more promising analytical approach. Russia is not building an empire, it seeks to stop one that threatens its existence from reaching its borders with proxies that include Neo-Nazis, terrorists, and NATO forces themselves. Obviously, not all comparisons are correct. After the collapse of the Soviet Union many domestic and international skeptics doubted that the level of Russia’s military is adequate to its claims to play a bigger role in the world affairs. Soon, the world will have more evidence by which to judge Russia’s readiness for this type of fight. Even some American pundits have noticed that Obama’s decision to send fifty U.S. special forces to Syria could be considered a response to Russia’s actions. Similar reasons might be behind the current consistent consultations with Middle Eastern powers, and invitations by the Russian defense ministry to military attachés in Moscow and Western brass, especially American, to create communication channels to avoid accidents. Russia wants to fight the conflict in Syria on its own terms, which are at odds with those of the US. Low oil prices and Western sanctions over Ukraine have. International analysis of Russia’s military action in Syria has been mostly focused on the main goals of the campaign. Russia has significant economic and military interests in Syria, such as a Mediterranean naval base at Tartus, that it is determined to keep. Some hawks charge that Putin's decision looks like a campaign to make Russia a major military power in the entire Middle East. But what exactly is Russian President Vladimir Putin up to in Syria? Again, from this perspective, it seems to be a very serious move. By winning the war in Syria, Russia seeks to make the old normal the new one. RUSSIAN LEVERAGE. This task has two dimensions: one of them is military, and the other is political. But the Assad regime has only survived because of the political, economic and military life support it’s had from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. According to these statements, Moscow has been absent in the area since Anwar Sadat switched Egypt’s loyalty from the Soviet Union to the United States. RUSSIAN LEVERAGE. With Russia's S-300 in Syria, Israel will have to think twice about the next strike Russian forces turned the tide in the international fight against Islamic State extremists — and then Moscow clinched victory for Syrian President Bashar Assad by sending warplanes, generals and alleged mercenaries to cripple and dissipate the Syrian rebellion. What Russia wants and what it will get in Syria. From its top-of-the-range Su-35 air superiority combat jets to its brand-new ship-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, Syria provides Russia with a dramatic backdrop to promote its most high-tech weaponry. Both theories are simplistic. Russia and the US have returned to diplomatic stalemate on Syria, proving that even when agreement in principle has been reached, such agreement is far from any guarantee of implementation. This time, the Kremlin has even demonstrated efforts to reach to the anti-Assad opposition. After months of heightened tensions in the Syrian province of Idlib, the last stronghold of the Syrian opposition, Russia and Turkey seem to have reached a temporary solution. The challenge now is to consolidate those gains. Obama’s administration abandoned Mubarak, a long-time American ally, yet the Kremlin, in even more complicated circumstances, is helping Assad. Russia wants to fight the conflict in Syria on its own terms, which are at odds with those of the US. More importantly, for the Soviet Union, the Afghan war became a full-blown proxy war against the United States, Pakistan and the Gulf states, which provided crucial support to the Afghan opposition. But Syria hasn't been among its big customers; China, India, Algeria and Vietnam have. The most important of them is that Moscow is not afraid of making bold decisions. Russia has significant economic and military interests in Syria, such as a Mediterranean naval base at Tartus, that it is determined to keep. The start of Russian intervention in Syria expanded configuration of forces in the Middle East and highlighted the Kremlin’s tasks in this country. Russia has been the target of repeated brutal terrorist attacks carried out by jihadist rebels. The military dimension is already ensured by the presence of Russian military bases in Syria – both aviation (Khmeimim) and naval (Tartus). In the years since, this has paid off both internationally and domestically. To form the coalitions necessary for varied goals and changing crises, one of the most important things for an outside power is the breadth its connections in the region. What Russian leaders seem to want in Syria is a war without EU sanctions, which they can win for the viewers at home. Yes, Russia does sell lot of arms -- $15 billion worth in 2012 . The usual explanations are that Syria buys lots of Russian arms and that the Syrian port of Tartus is an important "base" for Russia's Mediterranean Fleet. Syria gives Moscow an opportunity for affirming great power status by exerting influence beyond Russia’s near abroad. Although Syria is not Afghanistan 40 years ago, Russia still has enough to study beyond the Soviet negative experience, or even the doomed American transition in Vietnam—from the bombings to the land campaign. Mar 1, 2021 ALEPPO, Syria — The Turkish army and Russian forces’ recent military moves have raised the concerns of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Hasakah and Raqqa in northeastern Syria.. First of all, Syria is considered Russia’s ally in the Middle East: President Assad asked Moscow for help, and Russia has stood by its ally in very difficult circumstances. © Copyright 2021 Center for the National Interest All Rights Reserved. The Russo-Arabian connection has a long pre-history. Russia’s position on Syria is very close to that of Iran. Russian leaders seem to fear … During the last month, Russia held channels of communication wide open with Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Today these skeptics have been presented with an answer. It is very difficult in this situation to pretend that there are sustainable alliances or long-time friends that an outside power can rely on in the Middle East. Russia is not building an empire, it seeks to stop one that threatens its existence from reaching its borders with proxies that include Neo-Nazis, terrorists, and NATO forces themselves. One may argue that the decision to intervene in Syria was too risky, but in the current age of global public scrutiny, information overload and universal political procrastination, in the fast-changing and perplexing environment of the Middle East the Kremlin made a bold choice for action. It has called for an international coalition to destroy them. It is far from the truth. Syria’s fate was up to Syrians, he said, and the Russian government was prepared to live with the outcome of the U.N.-supervised elections.
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